What's inside
- A short explanation of reference-class forecasting in three steps.
- Step 1, a log of past projects: type, initial estimate, actual, the ratio of the two, scope changes and notes, shown with ten sample projects.
- Step 2, the distribution of ratios: minimum, 10th percentile, median, 90th percentile, maximum and average.
- Step 3, the ratios applied to a new estimate, with the wording to give stakeholders.
- The Excel version has a log sheet, a sample sheet and a new-project estimator that calculates the range.
Format: PDF (2 pages) and Excel workbook.
How to use it
Log your own past projects, then quote the range from the estimator instead of a single date.
Get the worksheet
It is free. We email the download link to your work address.